With various forecasts for the Lok Sabha election results out, which ones are more reliable than others? A veteran analyst describes the various methods, challenges and shortcomings in conducting an exit poll.
How does the common man judge which exit poll is most reliable? Rely on the one whose numbers you like the most and dismiss the one whose numbers you dislike? Today, some even judge the accuracy of an exit poll by looking at the survey agency that conducted the poll, or by looking at the television channel that commissioned the poll. Some others make a judgment from the sample size — a commonly shared notion is that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable should be the exit poll.
In reality, these should not be the indicators for judging the accuracy of an exit poll. Then how should one read these numbers, and should we even rely on these exit polls?
The numbers thrown up by various exit polls can neither be rejected in totality, nor can all be accepted without a pinch of salt. There are good exit polls and there are some not-so-good exit polls. As the least we expect from a physician is to measure the temperature of the patient, the least one should expect from an exit poll is to give the viewer/reader an estimate of the vote share.
Please click here to read more.