The demographic divergence between regions within the country must be seen as an opportunity for growth
There is a clear demographic divergence between north-central and south-western regions; one is a young hinterland with vast labour force and the other ones are ageing with decreasing working age population. Most of the current and future demographic potential is locked in the north-central States, and largely located in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
As per population projections by UNFPA, these five States will account for more than half of the growth in the labour force in India. Those who are under 15 years of age today will become India’s working population in coming decades. Almost every second person in this age group resides in these five States. The accompanying figure shows that there is a gap of almost 20 years between the northern hinterland and southern States in terms of the peak of the working age ratios in these regions.
When the total as well as percentage of working population will be declining in the advanced demographic transition States, it will still be increasing in north-central States. Of the 628 million population growth during 2001-2061, 400 million (two-third of the total addition) will be only in six north-central States. In the advanced demographic transition States, the total workforce size is projected to increase from 200 million in 2011 to 227 million in 2031 and then it will start decreasing to reach 183 million in 2061; 17 million less in 2061 than 2011.
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