NEW DELHI: A winter rain shortfall of 63% in January and February across India has led to reservoir levels dropping in the major river basins of the Sabarmati, Kaveri and Tapi. While agriculture ministry officials said this will not impact the rabi crop significantly, farmers in Gujarat–where water level in the Sardar Sarovar dam is below normal–are worried about cotton sowing.
“In the current situation, there is deficient water in the country’s reservoirs—11% less than a year ago and 9% less as per the 10-year average. States need to show prudence in water management,” said S Masood Husain, chairman of the Central Water Commission (CWC), which keeps tabs on 91 major reservoirs that feed hydropower plants and irrigate fields. It may be too early to assess the impact on the summer crop as pre-monsoon showers between March and May could help redeem the situation.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general KJ Ramesh told ET that it was “too early” for any kind of prediction about the June-September monsoon. Some influencing factors, however, are taking shape.
Australia’s national weather office on Tuesday said that La Nina had officially ended and Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were rising. El Nino, associated with warming of the Pacific Ocean surface, is regarded as being detrimental to the southwest monsoon in India. According to Indian weather forecasters, La Nina is to continue for a few more months before it becomes neutral and allow for formation of El Nino. La Nina is associated with cooling of the surface.
“Things are looking fine as of now,” said DS Pai, director for long-range forecasts at IMD. “Some models are predicting formation of El Nino in the second half but it will be neutral, and is unlikely to impact the southwest monsoon.” The hot, dry spell in parts of the country has got some farmers worried through.
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