The World Bank’s estimate that Aadhaar has the potential to save $11 billion in subsidies every year has repeatedly been used by the Centre to justify the programme. But does this figure hold up under close scrutiny?
Evidence-based policy-making usually proceeds by outlining the problem at hand, discussing various solutions, conducting studies to understand the effectiveness of these solutions and then prescribing a course of action based on accumulated evidence.
It’s safe to say that the media and policy narrative surrounding India’s biometric authentication programme hasn’t followed this process at best and has been skewed in favour of speedy implementation at worst.
For instance, it is clear that both the previous UPA-II and current NDA government painted a highly-exaggerated picture of savings from direct benefit transfers for LPG – a narrative that was largely accepted by an unquestioning mainstream media.
Another figure that has floated around over the last two years is that the Aadhaar project has the potential to save $11 billion in subsidies every year.
There is enough evidence to show that this figure – which originates from the World Bank – doesn’t hold up against close scrutiny.
Most recently, this $11 billion statistic was used as part of the Centre’s argument before the Supreme Court, as part of its reply to a writ petition filed by Shantha Sinha challenging the government’s notifications that made Aadhaar compulsory for various welfare schemes.
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