For farmers, the main source of their woes is a bumper crop.
If 2015 was the year of arhar (pigeon-pea) – retail prices of the milled dal scaled Rs 180-200 per kg levels in October and contributed hugely to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat in the Bihar Assembly polls – 2016 is set to close with the humble legume virtually disappearing from the public radar.
The new crop, which has just started arriving in the market, is currently selling at Rs 4,500-4,600 per quintal in Karnataka’s Gulbarga mandi. This is below not just the Rs 8,900-9,000 levels at this time last year, but also the Rs 5,050/quintal minimum support price (MSP) declared by the Narendra Modi government.
From the farmer’s standpoint, what is worse is that arrivals will peak only towards January-end in northern Karnataka (Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bijapur and Raichur districts) and mid-February in Maharashtra’s Marathwada (mainly Latur, Osmanabad, Nanded, Parbhani and Beed) and Vidarbha (Amravati, Yavatmal, Buldhana, Washim, Akola, Wardha and Nagpur) regions.
In 2015, arhar prices in Gulbarga began at Rs 5,000/quintal in January, rose to Rs 7,000 by end-June and, then, doubled to Rs 14,000-15,000 in mid-October at the time of the Bihar elections. Even through January-February, they ruled firm at Rs 8,000-10,000 per quintal. This time, though, things seem going the other way, with prices starting at Rs 4,500-4,600 and signs of further bearishness ahead. Consumers, of course, won’t mind: Arhar dal is now retailing in Patna at Rs 90/kg, compared to Rs 150-plus a year ago.
For farmers, the main source of their woes is a bumper crop. The Agriculture Ministry has estimated production at 4.29 million tonnes (mt) – an all-time record and higher than the 2.46 mt for 2015-16 and 2.81 mt for 2014-15. The trade believes output may even top 4.5 mt, as a combination of last year’s high prices and a good monsoon – plus the Modi government’s decision to hike the MSP by Rs 425/quintal – led farmers to ramp up arhar sowing area by almost 40 per cent this time.
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