After a hotter than usual summer, a better monsoon would boost agriculture, rural demand
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan’s hopes of a normal monsoon this year – after two back-to-back droughts – to boost rural demand could be fulfilled.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter than usual, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains this year.
Officials of both the weather department and private forecasters said the rainfall this year could be normal, with some forecasting it to be 102-103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). A monsoon is considered normal if rain during the June to September season is 96-104 per cent of the LPA.
The LPA is average seasonal rainfall over the country in the past 50 years, starting from 1951. It is estimated, at present, to be 89 cm.
"As of now, nothing is looking bad about the southwest monsoon this year. But, we are waiting for some more data, after which we will come out with our first seasonal forecast," D S Pai, deputy director general, climatology, India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Business Standard.
The first official forecast of the IMD for the 2016 monsoon is expected to released around April 20. Other weather observers are also of the opinion that the rains this year could be good.
The Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, in a forecast based on February data, had said there is a 54 per cent chance of the June-September precipitation being 10 mm per day – more than normal.
"All global models are pointing towards a normal monsoon in India this year, with a possibility of it being on the higher side of the LPA, that is, more than 100 per cent," Mahesh Palawat, the chief meteorologist at the private weather forecasting company Skymet said.
Skymet had predicted the 2009 drought correctly, but last year, its first forecast was off the mark from the actual rains.
On April 1, Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS), a Gurgaon-based private forecaster, had also said monsoon this year would be better than normal.
The main reason why meteorologists are optimistic about the monsoon is the waning of Niño, a weather phenomenon which has been blamed for the 2014 and 2015 droughts. This is only the fourth time in the past 115 years that there have been droughts on consecutive years.
El Niño is a climate cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines.
The Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, in a forecast based on February data, had said there is a 54 per cent chance of the June-September precipitation being 10 mm per day – more than normal.
"All global models are pointing towards a normal monsoon in India this year, with a possibility of it being on the higher side of the LPA, that is, more than 100 per cent," Mahesh Palawat, the chief meteorologist at the private weather forecasting company Skymet said.
Skymet had predicted the 2009 drought correctly, but last year, its first forecast was off the markfrom the actual rains.
On April 1, Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS), a Gurgaon-based private forecaster, had also said monsoon this year would be better than normal.
The main reason why meteorologists are optimistic about the monsoon is the waning of Niño, a weather phenomenon which has been blamed for the 2014 and 2015 droughts. This is only the fourth time in the past 115 years that there have been droughts on consecutive years.
El Niño is a climate cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines.
CLOUDS OF HOPE
Water crisis
Rural demand
Drought alleviation