Current growth trends if they persist show that India’s population will peak in 2060s
Fears of a rising Muslim population numerically overwhelming India’s Hindu majority seem alarmist and overdone any way you look at it. Indeed, if the growth rates trends seen from the latest census data sustain, Muslims may actually account for a lower proportion of India’s population than at their peak in 2011.
The 2011 census puts the Muslim population at 17.22 crore or 14.22% of India’s total population. Some see the Hindu majority falling below the 80% mark as a cause for concern. But this ignores the fact that growth in Muslim population is actually falling faster than the Hindu population growth rate.
A scenario analysis using different growth rates shows that Indian Muslims becoming the largest community is quite far-fetched. Assume that the growth rate pattern from 2001-2011, which has been used to suggest that Hindus are somehow falling behind, will persist. Population growth is calculated using an exponential growth rate. The Hindu growth rate is 1.55% annually, while Muslims’ is 2.2%. The figures for the previous decade (1991-2001) are an annual 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively. If this decline in growth rates persists (both continue to grow at slower rates), both Hindu and Muslim populations will hit a peak in 2061.
Then, Muslims will number 29.24 crore and Hindus 140.25 crore. India’s overall population at the time would be 173.03 crore with the Muslim proportion at 16.89%. Hindus will actually account for 81.06% at that time.
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