In summary, it is hard to escape the macroeconomic consequences of an agriculture shock, notwithstanding fluctuation-smoothing strategies
The monsoon forecast, close on the heels of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy review, has turned all eyes to the farm sector. If the actual out-turn matches the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) predictions — seasonal rainfall at 88% of the long-period average (LPA) for 2015 — it would be on the back of a deficient monsoon season last year, which dragged down agriculture growth to just 0.2% in 2014-15. That impact is still being felt upon farm output, wages, and so on when this forecast, which also predicts the worst rainfall deficit (15%) for north-west and central (10%) regions, arrives. Note that this distribution includes the major grain producing states, i.e. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, with Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat belts vulnerable too. This points to how serious the situation might be, if forecasts prove correct. 2015-16 would then officially be a drought year.
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