-The Times of India
With the development of cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea on Tuesday, the southwest monsoon finally showed promise of progressing further into the country. In the next three days, the system which had so far stalled over coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu shortly after its onset on June 5 will become stronger over the west coast and Konkan.
"Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation, the southwest winds have become much stronger. In the next three days, the system should hopefully cover Konkan, Kerala and coastal Karnataka, some parts of Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh. It will continue to remain behind its normal date of arrival over these regions but if one were to consider the deviation of seven days, the system is still within its normal range," said M Mohapatra, scientist E, IMD.
Monsoon is also expected to hit Mumbai by June 15, five days behind its normal onset date of June 10. Met officials refrained from predicting its onset over Delhi, saying that the normal date was July 1 and it would be difficult to comment authoritatively on its movement till then.
Till Tuesday, the country had recorded a deficit of 43% while southern Peninsula was staring at deficit rainfall of 59%. Only the Andaman and Nicobar Islands had recorded any worthwhile rainfall since June 1, the official date of onset for the southwest monsoon, clocking an excess of 58%. Three subdivisions, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep had recorded deficit rainfall while the remaining six subdivisions had witnessed only scanty rainfall that was between 60% and 85% below normal.
"There will be a significant improvement in the amount of rainfall as well once the system moves inwards. Not only has it been given a push by the cyclonic circulation, it is also much stronger right now," said a weather scientist.
Till Friday, heavy showers are expected over coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Heavy showers are also expected over some areas in interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Wednesday and more areas thereafter.
Meanwhile, the heat conditions will continue over northwest India. Met officials said that the maximum temperatures will remain 2-3 degrees above normal over the northwest plains till June 19 while many areas in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal will continue to reel under a heatwave for another couple of days.