Estimating India

The recently concluded 15th Indian National Census is an exercise of staggering magnitude — by any standard. For perspective: the decennial Census covered an area of 3.27 million sq. kms, that included 640 districts, 5,767 tehsils, 7,742 towns and over 600 villages. Primary data on 1.2 billion people would be collected by over 2 million enumerators, specially trained for the purpose. The total cost of the exercise is conservatively estimated at Rs 2,200 crore, while the subsequent National Public Register project would cost an additional Rs 3,500 crore. The sheer magnitude aside, the latest census includes some novel features as well. The houselisting and housing Census, carried out in the first phase, was designed to provide comprehensive data on the condition of human settlements and housing shortages to assist in the formulation of appropriate housing policies. The second phase collated information that would form the basis of the National Population Register (NPR), a comprehensive database on all Indian nationals over the age of 15. A Unique Identification Number (UID) that would serve as all-purpose identification would be issued thereafter, overcoming the need for multiple ‘ID Proofs’.

It is to the credit of the Indian Census authorities that they have consistently pioneered relevant technological innovations. For example, the 2001 Census introduced the Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR) software that enabled the scanning of Census forms at high speed. This revolutionary method enabled the extraction of data automatically, saving considerable manual labour and cost. The ICR has become the benchmark for censuses globally. The latest census and the subsequent NPR-based UID scheme introduces the ‘Ten Finger Biometry’ techniques that will provide fool-proof identification for all individuals over 15 years of age. The importance of this exercise that has been unfailingly conducted over the past 140 years cannot be understated. The Census has emerged as the most important source of information about demography, economic activity, literacy and education, urbanisation, fertility and mortality and many other socio-cultural indicators. Given the formidable obstacles to data collection in a vast land like India, the Census authorities need to be complimented for restricting the ‘omission’ rate to less than 2 per cent, which compares favourably with global standards. Ensuring credibility of data collection and processing and efficiency in publication of census data is vital to the overall success of this historic event.

While population growth in the southern states is at or near replacement levels, the story in northern India is vastly different. With a few minor exceptions, southern and western states are pulling away from their northern counterparts, in almost all indicators the Census touches upon. India in the aggregate has changed unrecognisably over the past two decades, particularly over the past ten years. However, the extent of inter-state and urban-rural differences is disturbing. Bridging these differences calls for active policy intervention. The Census has provided the numbers. The effort would amount to very little without clear-headed policy formulation and the political will to address these challenges. The results of the Census will be awaited eagerly by researchers,policymakers, politicians and all those interested in understanding India.